Edo 2016 governorship race: Factors and figures that will determine the primary.

As the participating political parties prepare to elect their standard bearers for the September 10, 2016 Edo State governorship election race.

Since mid April, when the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) released the guidelines for September 10, 2016 governorship election in Edo State, there has been increased political tempo in the South-South state as aspirants and their supporters mount pressure on their political parties to either elect them as the parties’ standard bearers or at least allow free primaries. This has deepened the intrigues as some stakeholders try desperately to advance reasons why their rivals must be denied the opportunity of flying the parties’ flags.

In the INEC guideline, primaries are scheduled to hold between June 2, 2016 and July 4, 2016. Realising that they have barely a month to either gain the ticket or loss it, the serious aspirants in the two leading political parties in the state, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), have literarily relocated to the rural communities both to feel the pulse of the real electorates and to carry along the grassroots political leaders who will ultimately determine the party’s flag-bearer. For example, one of the leading APC aspirants, Mr. Kenneth Imasuagbon (fondly called the Rice man), told The Nation on Thursday that he had visited all the wards in the state. “I have been working hard. I am the only aspirant in APC that have been to all the 992 wards to associate with the people and to feel their pulse,” he said. An associate of Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, a leading aspirant on the platform of PDP, who pleaded not to be named, since he was not assigned to speak for the aspirant, also said he has been working hard at the grassroots.

Aside the current moves of the aspirants to win support from the grassroots, which seems to cut 
across most of the leading parties, The Nation investigation shows that the major issues that will likely determine the results of the primaries and that of the governorship election include how APC leadership will finally handle the burning issue of Governor Adams Oshiomhole’s alleged support of one of the aspirants and how PDP will resolve the consensus candidate riddle.

APC and the fuss over Oshiomhole’s choice

Barely a month to the deadline given to the parties by INEC to produce their candidates, the issue of Governor Adams Oshiomhole’s choice has remained the major issue ahead the primaries. Most aspirants for APC ticket and their supporters have continued to express fears over Oshiomhole’s alleged endorsement of one of the aspirants, Mr. Godwin Obaseki, threatening that anything short of free and fair primaries will endanger the fortunes of the party at the governorship election proper.

Aside Obaseki, who is the head of the economic team of Oshiomhole’s government, other prominent aspirants for the ticket of APC in the governorship election include the Deputy Governor of the state, Dr Pius Odubu, Mr. Kenneth Imasuagbon (the Rice man), former governor of the state, Prof. Osarhiemen Osunbor, Works Commissioner, Osarodion Ogie, former Minister of State (Works), Dr Chris Ogiemwonyi and Gen. Charles Airhiavbere.

The allegation that Oshiomhole may have endorsed Obaseki first gathered steam in January, when the governor was accused of making government facilities available to him to promote his ambition at the expense of the other aspirants.

The Nation reported then that this allegation, which has been a subject of contention since then, gave the leadership of APC serious concern as some of the aggrieved aspirants reached out to top leaders of the party outside the state, warning that they would resist any form of imposition. A campaign official of one of the aspirants had warned that Oshiomhole’s open support of one of the aspirants will not be in the best interest of the party at the long run. “From what we are seeing, it seems clear that the governor is trying to change the goalpost in the middle of the game. This is not acceptable. Everybody knows that the calibre of aspirants in the race today was made possible because the governor initially and openly promised to allow a level playing field, to ensure that only the best and most popular candidate would emerge APC flag bearer. This is not acceptable.”

Calling on President Muhammadu Buhari and the national leadership of APC to wade into the matter to save the party in the state, he asked rhetorically, “Will Buhari, APC chieftains and national leaders of the party allow Oshiomhole to go ahead and impose candidate in Edo? Is it not a common knowledge that he is sponsoring delegates to favour his candidate? So, why are the leaders folding their hands and watching this dangerous development, knowing the likely consequence of destroying the party’s chances at the real governorship election?”

He added, “We all know that the governor came in with a populist ideology as a labour leader, fighting for the welfare of the people and so they embraced him and the party but it seems he has turned out to be a capitalist. In his actions, especially on this issue of how his successor would emerge, he is not walking the talk as he now sees himself as alpha and omega. He should allow people’s will to prevail and shouldn’t be allowed to truncate Buhari’s change mantra.”

Zoning permutation and APC

Our investigation shows that zoning may have emerged the major issue of who would succeed 
Oshiomhole. A source in APC said zoning will play a major part in the primaries, adding that 
some elements in the national leadership may have seen reason why zoning may not be totally ignored. According to our source, who claimed the avalanche of criticism against Obaseki’s choice may have dealt a big blow on his chances, said “those opposing Obaseki’s choice are not doing so only because it was the governor that wants him, but primarily because his emergence will not be fair, zoning wise; this has created a situation where the governor’s choice may no longer be the leading candidate. From what we can see on the field and from sentiments expressed during our interactions with some political leaders within and outside the state, the deputy governor, Pius Odubu from Edo South and the Rice Man, Ken Imansuagbon from Edo Central, may have actually emerged the aspirants to beat, since the North should not think of producing the next governor after Oshiomhole. If this sentiment persists, and if a free and fair primary election is held one may see a situation where the vote from the North will be shared between Obaseki and the other strong aspirants whose popularity spreads across the three senatorial zones while other zones like Edo Central may give an aspirant like Ken a bloc vote.”

This implication of this permutation would not be lost easily by a perceptive observer. This is a major challenge, especially for Governor Oshiomhole, who, insiders said has an idea of the person he wants to succeed him. Edo South Senatorial Zone for example, where the deputy governor comes from, has more than 50 percent voting population, and the zone has been outspoken on the need to produce Oshiomhole’s successor. Edo Central Senatorial District, where Imansuagbon and Professor Oserheimen Osunbor come from is also insisting that it should be their turn. For example, Dr. Francis Inegbeniki, the APC senatorial candidate for Edo Central in the March 28 general election, is of the opinion that the agitation by the people of Edo Central to produce the next governor of the state in 2016 “is non-negotiable,” arguing that the agitation is “for the purpose of justice, equity and fair play.”

He also said, “Edo Central had only occupied the governor’s office for just 18 months, adding that “The people of Edo Central are demanding to produce the next governor to take over from 
Oshiomhole in 2016. Honestly, I think the people of Edo South, which had occupied the position for over nine years and Edo North presently completing its eight years in that office in the person of Oshiomhole should not argue about it.”

Dr Austin Iyare, a political analyst, who also said zoning will play a major role in the choice of the candidate in APC, said, “Since APC leadership is not ignorant of the popular sentiment in Edo State today, I do not see why it will not convince the governor to allow a level playing ground in the interest of the party. Here in Edo, many agree it should be the turn of the Central. I can assure you that any party that ignores this truth will pay dearly for it.”

PDP and the consensus candidate’s riddle

In the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) the major issue seems to be how far the aspirants, especially the so-called four leading aspirants, will honour the alleged agreement to support any of them that emerged the consensus candidate. The four leading aspirants, according to Dr. Iyare, include Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, Hon. Matthew Iduoriyekwmwen, Chief Solomon Edebiri and Earl Osaro Onaiwu.

Given the radical antecedents of the four aspirants for example, insiders said they may not easily accept any imposition of any of them. For example, both Pastor Ize-Iyamu, a former Chief of Staff and Secretary to Edo State government during the Lucky Igbinedion administration (1999-2007) and Edebiri belonged to the progressive elements that formed the APC before but defected after alleged marginalisation.

Ize-Iyamu was one of the forces that formed the Grace Group, a pressure group within the PDP, which left the party to form the AD and the Action Congress in Edo State. He later served as the Vice Chairman, South- South of the defunct ACN before returning to the PDP after allegedly 
falling out with Oshiomhole.

Edebiri was one of the leaders of Edo ANPP group during the merger with the ACN and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) for the formation of the APC. But he defected to the PDP in 2014 after complaining that only the ACN group was running the show in the new APC.

As Iyare puts it, “Given the caliber of the PDP aspirants and their antecedents, informed observers are convinced that any imposition will hurt the unity of the party and that will be a gain to APC.  This notwithstanding, we learnt that many influential members of PDP national leadership are of the opinion that the party, besides studying the choice of APC, must take into consideration the zoning sentiment while settling for a standard bearer. The game is hot already as the leaders scheme the way to victory.